Publication Date July 17, 2015 | Chicago Tribune

Could the 1995 Chicago Heat Wave Happen Again?

United States
Chicago Police officers remove the body of man at the Sutherland Hotel, 4659 S. Drexel Blvd., on July 18, 1995. Photo: Phil Greer, Chicago Tribune
Chicago Police officers remove the body of man at the Sutherland Hotel, 4659 S. Drexel Blvd., on July 18, 1995. Photo: Phil Greer, Chicago Tribune

Even assuming the continued trends of global warming, the exceptionally rare conditions that created the tragedy—specifically, the high nighttime temperatures—could remain rare...The 2-day period where the minimum apparent temperature failed to go below 31.5°C (89°F) is calculated to be an extremely rare event (probability of occurrence less than 0.1%) based on a 10,000-yr-long simulation of a four-parameter (temperatures related to the mean, the intraseasonal daily variance, the interannual variance, and the day-to-day persistence of temperature) probabilistic model. How rare? “No heat wave during the twentieth century was comparable in this respect.”