Aug 5, 2016

New Disturbance Will Bring Heavy Rains to Southeast U.S.

New Orleans, LA
Tampa, FL
USA
by
Jeff Masters
,
Weather Underground
Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Friday, August 12, 2016. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (bright orange colors) are expected along a stretch of the Gulf Coast from New Orleans, Louisiana to Tampa, Florida. Image: National Weather Service
Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Friday, August 12, 2016. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (bright orange colors) are expected along a stretch of the Gulf Coast from New Orleans, Louisiana to Tampa, Florida. Image: National Weather Service

A broad surface low pressure system is forecast to develop near the coast of Alabama by Sunday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will bring a moist flow of air over the coast from Alabama to Tampa, resulting in heavy rains. In their 00Z Friday runs, about 40 - 60% of the members of the European and GFS model ensemble forecasts predicted that this low could develop into a tropical depression sometime Monday through Wednesday, and drift slowly northwards or northeastwards--inland over the Southeast U.S. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this future disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively. Regardless of development, coastal regions from New Orleans to Tampa can expect heavy rains exceeding five inches during the coming week, as highlighted in the latest precipitation forecast from NOAA. Water temperatures in the northeast Gulf of Mexico are at near-record warm levels, and the evaporation from these warm waters will provide plenty of moisture to fuel heavy rains