Aug 29, 2016

TDs 8, 9 May Become Tropical Storms

Tampa, FL
USA
by
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters
,
Weather Underground
The 12Z (8 am EDT) Monday run of the HWRF model predicted that TD 9 would have top winds of 50 mph at landfall, and would bring copious rains of 8 - 16” along its track across Florida. The HWRF rainfall amounts are likely too high, as the official NHC forecast at 5 pm EDT Monday called for 3 - 7” of rain along TD 9’s track, with isolated amounts of up to 10” along the coast near its landfall location. Image: NOAA/EMC
The 12Z (8 am EDT) Monday run of the HWRF model predicted that TD 9 would have top winds of 50 mph at landfall, and would bring copious rains of 8 - 16” along its track across Florida. The HWRF rainfall amounts are likely too high, as the official NHC forecast at 5 pm EDT Monday called for 3 - 7” of rain along TD 9’s track, with isolated amounts of up to 10” along the coast near its landfall location. Image: NOAA/EMC

 Our three best intensity models—the HWRF, DSHIPS and LGEM models—were in reasonable agreement with their latest runs available on Monday afternoon, with landfall intensities for TD 9 ranging from 50 - 75 mph. NHC is going with a forecast of a 65 mph tropical storm at landfall, noting that increasing wind shear in the final day before landfall may stop the intensification process. TD 9 could be a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, as suggested by the DSHIPS intensity model, and residents along the Gulf Coast of Florida should anticipate this possibility. This portion of the coast is highly vulnerable to large storm surges, due to the extensive stretch of shallow continental shelf water offshore that extend up to 90 miles from the coast. A worst-case Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide can cause a storm surge that will inundate the Florida Gulf Coast north of Tampa to a depth to 9 - 10 feet