May 24, 2017

Scientists reactions to the US House Science Committee hearing on climate science

by
Climate Feedback

Kerry Emanuel, Professor of Atmospheric Science, MIT:
Most of the published scientific work concerns the expected response of tropical cyclones to climate change and anticipates that such storms will become stronger and perhaps less frequent, but at a rate that should not be formally detectable until mid-century. Yet there is clear satellite-based evidence (e.g. Elsner et al., Nature, 2008; Kossin et al. J. Climate, 2013)* of increasing incidence of the strongest storms, as theory dating back to 1987 predicted.

Elsner et al. (2008) The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones, Nature

Kossin et al. (2013) Trend Analysis with a New Global Record of Tropical Cyclone Intensity, Journal of Climate

James Elsner, Professor, Florida State University:
While there is little scientific evidence that there will be more (or fewer) hurricanes or more hurricanes hitting the U.S., there is strong theoretical and statistical evidence that the strongest hurricanes are getting stronger as the oceans heat up due to global warming from the emission of greenhouse gases. In fact, there is statistical evidence that the magnitude of economic damage in the U.S. from hurricanes increases with rising ocean temperature.

Elsner et al (2008) The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones, Nature

Elsner (2007b) Granger causality and Atlantic hurricanes, Tellus A

Jagger et al (2011) Climate and solar signals in property damage losses from hurricanes affecting the United States, Natural Hazards