Science Sources: Detection and Attribution

Climate Signals tracks detection and attribution studies in real time. Below is an updating database of studies that find the fingerprint of human-caused climate change on observed trends and events. The database is limited to studies of local significance in the United States and studies of global significance. For a broader database of peer-reviewed studies and organizational reports on climate change trends, please see all Science Sources.

Search or browse our collection of detection and attribution studies below, or learn more about detection and attribution studies.

Title Source Date Author(s)
Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California Plos One Michael L. Mann, Enric Batllori, Max A. Moritz, Eric K. Waller, Peter Berck, Alan L. Flint, Lorraine E. Flint, Emmalee Dolfi
Anthropogenic climate change is worsening North American pollen seasons Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences William R. L. Anderegg, John T. Abatzoglou, Leander D. L. Anderegg, Leonard Bielory, Patrick L. Kinney, and Lewis Ziska
Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Andra J. Garner, Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, Robert E. Kopp, Ning Ling, Richard B. Alley, Benjamin P. Horton, Robert M. DeContok, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, and David Pollard
Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States’ largest river basin Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Justin Martin, Gregory Pederson, Connie Woodhouse, Edward Cook, Gregory McCabe, Kevin Anchukaitis, Erika Wise, Patrick Erger, Larry Dolan, Marketa McGuire, Subhrendu Gangopadhyay, Katherine Chase, Jeremy Littell, Stephen Gray, Scott St. George et al.
Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Kerry Emanuel
Global urban population exposure to extreme heat Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Cascade Tuholske, Kelly Caylor, Chris Funk, Andrew Verdin, Stuart Sweeney, Kathryn Grace, Pete Peterson, and Tom Evans
Recent increases in tropical cyclone precipitation extremes over the US east coast Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Justin T. Maxwell, Joshua C. Bregy, Scott M. Robeson, Paul A. Knapp, Peter T. Soulé, and Valerie Trouet
Increasingly frequent wildfires linked to human-caused climate change, UCLA-led study finds Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Yizhou Zhuang, Alex Hall, Benjamin Santer, and Robert Dickinson
Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Aslak Grinsted, John C. Moore, Svetlana Jevrejeva
Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Ning Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Benjamin P. Horton, Jeffrey P. Donnelly
Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Benjamin D. Santer, Jeffrey F. Painter, Carl A. Mears, Charles Doutriaux, Peter Caldwell, Julie M. Arblaster, Philip J. Cameron-Smith, Nathan P. Gillett, Peter J. Gleckler, John Lanzante, Judith Perlwitz, Susan Solomon, Peter A. Stott, Karl E. Taylor et a
Increase of extreme events in a warming world Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Stefan Rahmstorf and Dim Coumou
Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Andra J. Reed, Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, Ning Lin, Benjamin P. Horton, Andrew C. Kemp, and Jeffrey P. Donnelly
Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Yizhou Zhuang, Rong Fu, Benjamin D. Santer, Robert E. Dickinson, and Alex Hall
Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences John T. Abatzoglou and A. Park Williams
Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Benjamin D. Santer, Jeffrey F. Painter, Céline Bonfils, Carl A. Mears, Susan Solomon, Tom M. L. Wigley, Peter J. Gleckler, Gavin A. Schmidt, Charles Doutriaux, Nathan P. Gillett, Karl E. Taylor, Peter W. Thorne, Frank J. Wentz
Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution studies Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences B. D. Santer, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, T. P. Barnett, D. W. Pierce, T. M. L. Wigley, C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, S. Solomon, P. A. Stott, M. F. Wehner
Climate change and California drought in the 21st century Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Michael E. Mann, Peter H. Gleick
Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Daniel L. Swain, and Danielle Toum