Oct 13, 2015

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

by
Andra J. Reed, Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, Ning Lin, Benjamin P. Horton, Andrew C. Kemp, and Jeffrey P. Donnelly
,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • Combines proxy sea level records, downscaled tropical cyclone data sets, and storm surge models to investigate the impacts of rising sea levels and tropical cyclones on coastal inundation in New York City
  • Finds that the flood risk for New York City due to tropical cyclones and their resultant storm surges has increased significantly during the last millennium
  • Mean flood heights increased by >1.2 m from ∼A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005 due to rising relative sea levels
  • Finds there were also increases in the types of tropical cyclones that produce the greatest surges for the region
  • As a result, the 500-y flood height return periods have fallen to ∼24.4 y throughout the millennium