Feb 1, 2007

Predictability of June–September Rainfall in Ethiopia

by
Diriba Korecha and Anthony G. Barnston
,
Monthly Weather Review
  • States that in much of Ethiopia, rainfall from June to September contributes the majority of the annual total, and is crucial to Ethiopia’s water resource and agriculture operations
  • States that drought-related disasters could be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time
  • Examines the predictive potential for June–September rainfall in Ethiopia using mainly statistical approaches
  • Assesses the skill of a dynamical approach to predicting the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which impacts Ethiopian rainfall
  • Applies multivariate statistical techniques to diagnose and predict seasonal rainfall patterns using historical monthly mean global sea surface temperatures and other physically relevant predictor data
  • Results show the June–September rainy season is governed primarily by ENSO, and secondarily reinforced by more local climate indicators near Africa and the Atlantic and Indian Oceans
  • Finds that rainfall anomaly patterns can be predicted with some skill within a short lead time of the summer season, based on emerging ENSO developments