Oct 31, 2018

Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events: The role of quasi-resonant amplification

by
Michael E. Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf, Kai Kornhuber, Byron A. Steinman, Sonya K. Miller, Stefan Petri, Dim Coumou
,
Science Advances
  • States that persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA)
  • Examines state-of-the-art climate model projections
  • Finds that QRA events are likely to increase by ~50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models
  • Concludes that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events