Mar 21, 2016

Trend and uncertainty in spatial-temporal patterns of hydrological droughts in the Amazon basin

by
Lopes, A.V., Chiang, J.C.H., Thompson, S.A., Dracup, J.A.
,
Geophysical Research Letters
  • Derives spatial-temporal patterns of hydrological droughts in the Amazon basin from drought indices computed from existing streamflow data
  • Employs principal component analysis and Monte Carlo simulations to account for the uncertainty and overcome the limitations of missing data in streamflow records
  • Results show that northern and southern sub-basins differ in drought trends and in patterns of correlation between drought indices and climate anomalies originating from the Pacific (El Nino – Southern Oscillation) and Atlantic (differences in sea surface temperature across the Equator) Oceans
  • Finds a significant trend towards more intense droughts in the southern sub-basins, which is highly correlated to tropical Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies
  • States that drying trend might have distinct causes in each sub-basin and can lead to potential intensification of regional impacts