Graph: Likelihood of exceeding the 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming limits

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stefan Rahmstorf & Ricarda Winkelmann

Given are the probabilities of exceeding 1.5 °C (blue) and 2 °C (red) of global warming as a function of cumulative CO2 emissions from 2011 to 2100, derived with MAGICC6 based on the IPCC AR5 scenarios. Detailed information on each scenario and model is provided in the IPCC AR5 Scenario Database (hosted at IIASA and accessed via the AR5 scenario explorer). Solid lines are sigmoidal fits  to the MAGICC6 results.