Acceleration of phenological advance and warming with latitude over the past century

Spring is arriving earlier, and the Arctic is experiencing greater advances of spring than lower latitudes.”

-Lead study author Eric Post

Abstract

• Analyzes 743 phenological trend estimates spanning 86 years and 42.6 degrees of latitude in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as rates of Northern Hemisphere warming over the same period and latitudinal range
• Detects significant patterns of co-variation in phenological time series characteristics that may confound estimates of the magnitude of variation in trends with latitude
• Finds that however, accounting for such variation only slightly modifies the relationship between rates of phenological advance and latitude, which is highly significant
• Finds that warming has increased non-linearly with latitude over the past several decades, most strongly since 1998 and northward of 59°N latitude
• Concludes that the acceleration of warming with latitude has likely contributed to an acceleration of phenological advance along the same gradient

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