What are climate signals?

Climate signals are long-term trends and projections that carry the fingerprint of climate change. Examples of observed long-term trends linked to climate change include rising sea levels, increasing extreme precipitation, and warming sea surface temperatures. Model projections can identify conditions expected in a warming world such as an increasing frequency of intense hurricanes.

Climate Signals is a digital science platform for cataloging and mapping the impacts of climate change. Currently in open-beta release, the platform is designed to identify the chain of connections between greenhouse gas emissions and individual climate events.

Climate Signals consists of a curated relational database of events and their links to climate change, an event mapping engine, a searchable database of science reports, and a searchable gallery of climate change monitors relaying real-time data.

For each event in the database, an infographic engine provides a custom “signal tree” that illustrates the connections to climate change. The system of attribution used to link events to climate change is explained here. In addition, key resources are aggregated and curated for each event.

This open-beta release is offered for public user testing and engagement. Comments and feedback are invited and can be submitted here.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Heat trapping gasses, such as CO2 and methane, drive rising temperatures. Emission of CO2 also drives acidification of oceans.
Long-term trends, model projections, and basic physics link climate change to individual events.
Long-term trends, model projections, and basic physics link climate change to individual events.
Long-term trends, model projections, and basic physics link climate change to individual events.

Climate Signals

Climate Event

Events are shaped by many factors. Increasingly climate change is a factor, particularly when climate change pushes systems past tipping points.

Climate Signals

Climate Signals

Long-term trends and projections are the middle link between individual climate events and climate change. Climate events — such as heat waves, extreme storms or glacial retreat — are events that were made more likely, severe, or damaging due to the increase in greenhouse gases from human activities

On the Climate Signals platform, attribution of climate change to individual events is made by linking individual events to the relevant long-term trends and then, in turn, linking those trends to climate change where appropriate. For some events there may not be sufficient data or time to establish a long-term trend, but the events are consistent with the physics of global warming. In those instances, the physics serve as the middle link. In other instances, there may be not be an established long-term trend as of this date, but the event is consistent with nascent trends suggested by modeling.

For some events there may not be a preponderance of evidence, but enough evidence exists to indicate a significant risk of a climate change connection. In those instances the connections are highlighted on the Climate Signals platform to indicate the tentative status of the climate change connection and the concomitant risk.

Natural variation is still the dominant determinant for the frequency and severity of most climate events. However, climate change is now an additional factor to consider when examining the context and shape of any climate event.

Visit Science Sources: Detection and Attribution for additional information.