Nov 17, 2015

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

Jeon, S.; Prabhat; Byna, S.; Gu, J.; Collins, W. D.; Wehner, M. F.
Advances in Statistical Climatology Meteorology and Oceanography
  • Investigates changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California
  • Uses recently developed TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets
  • Investigates the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework
  • Results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005)
  • Finds that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run