Sep 1, 2013

EEE 2012: Likelihood Of July 2012 U.S. Temperatures In Preindustrial And Current Forcing Regimes

Noah S. Diffenbaugh and Martin Scherer
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Main findings:

The CMIP5 global climate model ensemble suggests that the likelihood of extreme July temperature anomalies is greater in the current forcing than in the preindustrial forcing. In particular, the mean occurrence of 2012-magnitude temperatures is more than four times as frequent over the north-central and northeastern United States in the current forcing. The mean occurrence of 2012-magnitude geopotential height anomalies is also more than four times as frequent, suggesting increased likelihood of the atmospheric conditions that often occur in conjunction with severe heat at the surface.

Full report:

EEE 2012: Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective