Apr 1, 2013

Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs

by
Hiroyuki Murakami, Masato Sugi, Akio Kitoh
,
Climate Dynamics
  • Investigates potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO)
  • Performs 15 ensemble experiments under the International Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario
  • Most of the ensemble future (2075–2099) experiments do not project significant future changes in the basin-scale TC genesis number; however, they commonly show a substantial increase (by 46 %) in TC frequency over the Arabian Sea and a decrease (by 31 %) in the Bay of Bengal
  • Projected future changes in TC genesis frequency show a marked seasonal variation in the North Indian Ocean: a significant and robust reduction during the pre-monsoon season, an increase during the peak-monsoon season, and a westward shift during the post-monsoon season
  • Analyses several large-scale thermodynamic and dynamical parameters to elucidate the physical mechanism responsible for the future changes in TC activity
  • This analysis reveals a seasonal dependence of the relative contribution of these parameters to the projected future changes in TC genesis frequency