Sep 12, 2018

The human influence on Hurricane Florence

by
Kevin Reed, Alyssa Stansfield, Michael Wehner, and Colin Zarzycki
,
Stony Brook University’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences

This study is the first advanced forecast attribution statement about climate change influence on a tropical cyclone--a breakthrough in climate science. Studies attributing the extent to which climate change influenced a weather event are typically conducted and published after a storm has already hit.


  • Rainfall will be significantly increased by over 50% in the heaviest precipitating parts of the storm, due to human interference in the climate system. This increase is substantially larger than expected from thermodynamic considerations alone.
  • The storm will remain at a high category on the Saffir­-Simpson scale for a longer duration and that the storm will be approximately 80 km (49.7 miles) in diameter larger at landfall, both changes due human interference in the climate system.