Oct 10, 2016

Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

by
Ning Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Benjamin P. Horton, Jeffrey P. Donnelly
,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • States that coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level
  • Combines probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard
  • Finds that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century
  • Finds that due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway
  • Finds that when potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100