Mar 28, 2016

Long-lead predictions of eastern United States hot days from Pacific sea surface temperatures

K. A. McKinnon, A. Rhines, M. P. Tingley & P. Huybers
Nature Geoscience
  • Presents a clustering analysis of daily maximum summer temperatures from US weather stations between 1982–2015 and identifies a region spanning most of the eastern US where hot weather events tend to occur synchronously
  • Shows that an evolving pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies, termed the Pacific Extreme Pattern, provides for skillful prediction of hot weather within this region as much as 50 days in advance
  • Demonstrates skill using out-of-sample predictions between 1950 and 2015
  • Finds that rainfall deficits over the eastern US are also associated with the occurrence of the Pacific Extreme Pattern, offering complementary skill in predicting high temperatures
  • Finds the Pacific Extreme Pattern appears to provide a cohesive framework for improving seasonal prediction of summer precipitation deficits and high temperature anomalies in the eastern US