Stevenson, Dentener, Schultz, Ellingsen, van Noije, Wild, G. Zeng, Amann, Atherton, Bell, Bergmann, Bey, Butler, Cofala, Collins, Derwent, Doherty, Drevet, Eskes, Fiore, Gauss, Hauglustaine, Horowitz, Isaksen, Krol, Lamarque, Lawrence, Montanaro et al

Published date April 26, 2006

Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone

  • Intercompares and synthesizes global tropospheric ozone distributions, budgets, and radiative forcings from an ensemble of 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models as part of a wider study into both the air quality and climate roles of ozone
  • Compares results from three 2030 emissions scenarios—broadly representing “optimistic,” “likely,” and “pessimistic” options—to a base year 2000 simulation
  • Finds that—combining ozone and methane changes—the three scenarios produce radiative forcings of −50, 180, and 300 mW m−2, compared to a CO2 forcing over the same time period of 800–1100 mW m−2
  • Results indicate the importance of air pollution emissions in short- to medium-term climate forcing and the potential for stringent/lax control measures to improve/worsen future climate forcing