Apr 26, 2006

Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone

  • Intercompares and synthesizes global tropospheric ozone distributions, budgets, and radiative forcings from an ensemble of 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models as part of a wider study into both the air quality and climate roles of ozone
  • Compares results from three 2030 emissions scenarios—broadly representing “optimistic,” “likely,” and “pessimistic” options—to a base year 2000 simulation
  • Finds that—combining ozone and methane changes—the three scenarios produce radiative forcings of −50, 180, and 300 mW m−2, compared to a CO2 forcing over the same time period of 800–1100 mW m−2
  • Results indicate the importance of air pollution emissions in short- to medium-term climate forcing and the potential for stringent/lax control measures to improve/worsen future climate forcing