M. R. Allen, N. P. Gillett, J. A. Kettleborough, G. Hegerl, R. Schnur, P. A. Stott, G. Boer, C. Covey, T. L. Delworth, G. S. Jones, J. F. B. Mitchell, T. P. Barnett

Surveys in Geophysics

Published date November 15, 2006

Quantifying anthropogenic influence on recent near-surface temperature change

  • Assesses the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models
  • Rejects the hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability at a high confidence level independent of the climate model used to simulate either the anthropogenic signal or the internal variability
  • Concludes that the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emerges as a substantial contributor to recent observed climate change, with the estimated trend attributable to greenhouse forcing similar in magnitude to the total observed warming over the 20th century