May 9, 2013

Response of tropical sea surface temperature, precipitation, and tropical cyclone‐related variables to changes in global and local forcing

Kerry Emanuel and Adam Sobel
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
  • Estimates the equilibrium response of sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation, and several variables related to tropical cyclone (TC) activity to changes in both local and global forcing
  • Finds that, in general, TC potential intensity and genesis potential vary much more rapidly with SST in response to varying surface wind speed than in response to other forcings
  • Finds that local changes in TC potential intensity are highly correlated with local changes in SST, showing that relative SST is a good proxy for potential intensity when forcing is strictly local, but it cannot capture potentially important changes in potential intensity that arise from global‐scale changes in forcing