Oct 13, 2013

Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability

Scott Power, François Delage, Christine Chung, Greg Kociuba & Kevin Keay
  • States there is very little consensus on future changes in ENSO, apart from an expectation that ENSO will continue to be a dominant source of year-to-year variability
  • Shows that there are in fact robust projected changes in the spatial patterns of year-to-year ENSO-driven variability in both surface temperature and precipitation
  • Finds that, by the mid- to late twenty-first century, the projections include an intensification of both El-Niño-driven drying in the western Pacific Ocean and rainfall increases in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific