Jul 4, 1996

A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere

B. D. Santer, K. E. Taylor, T. M. L. Wigley, T. C. Johns, P. D. Jones, D. J. Karoly, J. F. B. Mitchell, A. H. Oort, J. E. Penner, V. Ramaswamy, M. D. Schwarzkopf, R. J. Stouffer, S. Tett
  • States that the observed spatial patterns of temperature change in the free atmosphere from 1963 to 1987 are similar to those predicted by state-of-the-art climate models incorporating various combinations of changes in carbon dioxide, anthropogenic sulphate aerosol and stratospheric ozone concentrations
  • Finds that the degree of pattern similarity between models and observations increases through this period
  • Concludes that is likely that this trend is partially due to human activities, although many uncertainties remain, particularly relating to estimates of natural variability