Mar 16, 2016

On the Seasonal Occurrence and Abundance of the Zika Virus Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in the Contiguous United States

Andrew J. Monaghan, Cory W. Morin, Daniel F. Steinhoff, Olga Wilhelmi, Mary Hayden, Dale A. Quattrochi, Michael Reiskind, Alun L. Lloyd, Kirk Smith, Chris A. Schmidt, Paige E. Scalf, Kacey Ernst
PLOS Currents Outbreaks
  • Employs meteorologically driven models for 2006-2015 to simulate the potential seasonal abundance of adult Aedes aegypti for fifty cities within or near the margins of its known U.S. range
  • Analyzes mosquito abundance results alongside travel and socioeconomic factors that are proxies of viral introduction and vulnerability to human-vector contact
  • Finds meteorological conditions are largely unsuitable for Aedes aegypti over the U.S. during winter months (December-March), except in southern Florida and south Texas where comparatively warm conditions can sustain low-to-moderate potential mosquito abundance
  • Finds meteorological conditions are suitable for Aedes aegypti across all fifty cities during peak summer months (July-September), though the mosquito has not been documented in all cities
  • Simulations indicate the highest mosquito abundance occurs in the Southeast and south Texas where locally acquired cases of Aedes-transmitted viruses have been reported previously
  • States that cities in southern Florida and south Texas are at the nexus of high seasonal suitability for Aedes aegypti and strong potential for travel-related virus introduction
  • Results can inform baseline risk for local Zika virus transmission in the U.S. and the optimal timing of vector control activities, and underscore the need for enhanced surveillance for Aedes mosquitoes and Aedes-transmitted viruses