Nov 5, 2015

Tropical cyclones and climate change

Walsh, Kevin J.E., McBride, John L., Klotzbach, Philip J., Balachandran, Sethurathinam, Camargo, Suzana J., Holland, Greg, Knutson, Thomas R., Kossin, James P., Lee, Tsz‐cheung, Sobel, Adam, Sugi, Masato
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
  • Reviews recent research, which has strengthened the understanding of the links between climate and tropical cyclones (TCs) on various timescales
  • States that geological records of past climates have shown century-long variations in TC numbers
  • States that while no significant trends have been identified in the Atlantic since the late 19th century, significant observed trends in TC numbers and intensities have occurred in this basin over the past few decades, and trends in other basins are increasingly being identified
  • States that climate models mostly continue to predict future decreases in global TC numbers, projected increases in the intensities of the strongest storms and increased rainfall rates
  • Finds sea level rise will likely contribute toward increased storm surge risk
  • Finds that several climate models are now able to generate a good distribution of both TC numbers and intensities in the current climate
  • Finds inconsistent TC projection results emerge from modeling studies due to different downscaling methodologies and warming scenarios, inconsistencies in projected changes of large-scale conditions, and differences in model physics and tracking algorithms