Nov 22, 2016

US daily temperature records past, present, and future

Gerald A. Meehl, Claudia Tebaldi, Dennis Adams-Smith
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • Represents changes in temperature extremes over the continental United States by the ratio of daily record high maximum temperatures to daily record low minimum temperatures and computed as a function of mean temperature increase that does not depend on scenario
  • Extends a nonlinear empirical fit of the relation between this ratio and average temperature, using observations from 1930 to 2015, to 2100 and compares with the climate model projections
  • Finds that the projections of the ratio are somewhat higher than the empirical projection from observations, continuing a positively biased trend in daily record high temperatures in the 20th century in the models, which we link to less-than-observed summer precipitation and evapotranspiration