Published date

Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change

Study key findings & significance

  • Due to climate change, rodent communities at high elevations have become more conducive to the establishment of plague reservoirs—with suitability increasing up to 40% in some places—and that spillover risk to humans at mid-elevations has increased as well.
  • Anomalously warm and anomalously wet, cold years can increase plague prevalence and spillover risk, respectively, through ripple effects of ecosystem productivity on rodents and flea populations.
  • The data supports a view of plague risk where weather conditions (and

Published date

Wildfire response to changing daily temperature extremes in California’s Sierra Nevada

Study key findings & significance

  • A rise of 1.8°F (1°C)  in mean summer temperature over the past 20 years increased the risk of a fire starting on a given day — either by human activity or a lightning strike — by 19 to 22 percent, and increased the burned area by 22 to 25 percent.
  • The research examined daily temperatures and data from nearly 450 Sierra Nevada fires from 2001 to 2020 and projected the analysis into the future.
  • The number of fires could increase by about 20 percent or more by the 2040s, and the total burned area could increase by about

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Published date

Forest fires and climate-induced tree range shifts in the western US

Study key findings & significance

  • Migrant trees are finding new homes in forests across the Western U.S., as changing climate conditions — accelerated by wildfires — force them to seek out cooler, wetter locations.
  • The study provides the first empirical evidence that fires are hastening the movement of trees, likely by diminishing competition from established species
  • The researchers analyzed U.S. Forest Service data from more than 74,000 sites across nine Western U.S.
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