Last updated October 10, 2018

Widespread persistent changes to temperature extremes occurred earlier than predicted

  • Shows observational evidence that persistent changes to temperature extremes have already occurred over large parts of the Earth
  • Shows that climate models forced with natural and anthropogenic historical forcings underestimate these changes
  • Finds that persistent changes have emerged in observations earlier and over a larger spatial extent than predicted by models
  • Examination of simulations with and without anthropogenic forcings provides evidence that the observed changes are more likely to be anthropogenic than nature in origin
  • Findings suggest that further changes to temperature extremes over parts of the Earth are likely to occur earlier than projected by the current climate models