- States that lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained
- Proposes that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate
- Uses observations to show that the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS)
- Finds that storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1%
- Finds that when this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 ± 5% per degree Celsius of global warming and about 50% over this century
Related Content
Headline
Apr 1, 2020 | Washington Post
Abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico could intensify the upcoming tornado and hurricane seasons
Headline
Mar 13, 2020 | Washington Post
Fierce ‘dragon’ storm hits Egypt with flooding rain and damaging winds. Israel braces for impact.
Science Source
Feb 12, 2020 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Surface Pressure a More Skillful Predictor of Normalized Hurricane Damage than Maximum Sustained Wind
Headline
Jan 21, 2020 | Washington Post
‘Bomb’ blizzard buried cars and homes with more than 12 feet of snow in parts of Newfoundland
