Science Sources: Detection and Attribution

Climate Signals tracks detection and attribution studies in real time. Below is an updating database of studies that find the fingerprint of human-caused climate change on observed trends and events. The database is limited to studies of local significance in the United States and studies of global significance. For a broader database of peer-reviewed studies and organizational reports on climate change trends, please see all Science Sources.

Search or browse our collection of detection and attribution studies below, or learn more about detection and attribution studies.

Title Source Date Author(s)
Increase of extreme events in a warming world Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Stefan Rahmstorf and Dim Coumou
Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Andra J. Reed, Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, Ning Lin, Benjamin P. Horton, Andrew C. Kemp, and Jeffrey P. Donnelly
Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Yizhou Zhuang, Rong Fu, Benjamin D. Santer, Robert E. Dickinson, and Alex Hall
Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences John T. Abatzoglou and A. Park Williams
Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Benjamin D. Santer, Jeffrey F. Painter, Céline Bonfils, Carl A. Mears, Susan Solomon, Tom M. L. Wigley, Peter J. Gleckler, Gavin A. Schmidt, Charles Doutriaux, Nathan P. Gillett, Karl E. Taylor, Peter W. Thorne, Frank J. Wentz
Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution studies Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences B. D. Santer, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, T. P. Barnett, D. W. Pierce, T. M. L. Wigley, C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, S. Solomon, P. A. Stott, M. F. Wehner
Climate change and California drought in the 21st century Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Michael E. Mann, Peter H. Gleick
Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States Science Tim P. Barnett, David W. Pierce, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Celine Bonfils, Benjamin D. Santer, Tapash Das, Govindasamy Bala, Andrew W. Wood, Toru Nozawa, Arthur A. Mirin, Daniel R. Cayan, Michael D. Dettinger
Anthropogenic Warming of Earth's Climate System Science Sydney Levitus, John I. Antonov, Julian Wang, Thomas L. Delworth, Keith W. Dixon, Anthony J. Broccoli
Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation Science P. C. D. Milly, K. A. Dunne
Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change in the World's Oceans Science Tim P. Barnett, David W. Pierce, Reiner Schnur
Human-induced arctic moistening Science Seung-Ki Min, Xuebin Zhang, Francis Zwiers
Detection of a Human Influence on North American Climate Science David J. Karoly, Karl Braganza, Peter A. Stott, Julie M. Arblaster, Gerald A. Meehl, Anthony J. Broccoli, Keith W. Dixon
Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission Science Dirk Notz, Julienne Stroeve
Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes Science B. D. Santer, M. F. Wehner, T. M. L. Wigley, R. Sausen, G. A. Meehl, K. E. Taylor, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, W. M. Washington, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann
Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes Science Ben Marzeion, J. Graham Cogley, Kristin Richter, David Parkes
The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally Science Advances Vikki Thompson, Alan T. Kennedy-Asser, Emily Vosper, Y. T. Eunice Lo, Chris Huntingford, Oliver Andrews, Matthew Collins, Gabrielle C. Hegerland, and Dann Mitchell
Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion Science Advances Evan Weller, Seung-Ki Min, Wenju Cai, Francis W. Zwiers, Yeon-Hee Kim, Donghyun Lee
Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood Science Advances Xingying Huang and Daniel L. Swain
A stratospheric pathway linking a colder Siberia to Barents-Kara Sea sea ice loss Science Advances Pengfei Zhang, Yutian Wu, Isla R. Simpson, Karen L. Smith, Xiangdong Zhang, Bithi De, Patrick Callaghan