Science Sources: Detection and Attribution

Climate Signals tracks detection and attribution studies in real time. Below is an updating database of studies that find the fingerprint of human-caused climate change on observed trends and events. The database is limited to studies of local significance in the United States and studies of global significance. For a broader database of peer-reviewed studies and organizational reports on climate change trends, please see all Science Sources.

Search or browse our collection of detection and attribution studies below, or learn more about detection and attribution studies.

Title Source Date Author(s)
Attribution of Arctic temperature change to greenhouse-gas and aerosol influences Nature Climate Change Mohammad Reza Najafi, Francis W. Zwiers, Nathan P. Gillett
Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 Nature Climate Change Aimée B. A. Slangen, John A. Church, Cecile Agosta, Xavier Fettweis, Ben Marzeion, Kristin Richter
Attribution of climate extreme events Nature Climate Change Kevin E. Trenberth, John T. Fasullo & Theodore G. Shepherd
California from drought to deluge Nature Climate Change S.-Y. Simon Wang, Jin-Ho Yoon, Emily Becker and Robert Gillies
Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise Nature Communications Sönke Dangendorf, Marta Marcos, Alfred Müller, Eduardo Zorita, Riccardo Riva, Kevin Berk, Jürgen Jensen
Increasing trends in regional heatwaves Nature Communications S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. C. Lewis
Anthropogenic and natural warming inferred from changes in Earth’s energy balance Nature Geoscience Markus Huber and Reto Knutti
Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California Plos One Michael L. Mann, Enric Batllori, Max A. Moritz, Eric K. Waller, Peter Berck, Alan L. Flint, Lorraine E. Flint, Emmalee Dolfi
Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Daniel L. Swain, and Danielle Toum
Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Robert E. Kopp, Andrew C. Kemp, Klaus Bittermann, Benjamin P. Horton, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, W. Roland Gehrels, Carling C. Hay, Jerry X. Mitrovica, Eric D. Morrow, Stefan Rahmstorf
Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Deepti Singh, Justin S. Mankin, Daniel E. Horton, Daniel L. Swain, Danielle Touma, Allison Charland, Yunjie Liu, Matz Haugen, Michael Tsiang, Bala Rajaratnam
Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences B. D. Santer, C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor , P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner
Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Hiroyuki Murakami, Thomas L. Delworth, William F. Cooke, Ming Zhao, Baoqiang Xiang, Pang-Chi Hsu
Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences B. D. Santer, T. M. L. Wigley, P. J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, M. F. Wehner, K. AchutaRao, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, M. Fiorino, N. Gillett, J. E. Hansen, P. D. Jones, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, S. C. B. Raper, R. W. Reynolds et al
Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences James P. Kossin, Kenneth R. Knapp, Timothy L. Olander, Christopher S. Velden
Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Andra J. Garner, Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, Robert E. Kopp, Ning Ling, Richard B. Alley, Benjamin P. Horton, Robert M. DeContok, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, and David Pollard
Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States’ largest river basin Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Justin Martin, Gregory Pederson, Connie Woodhouse, Edward Cook, Gregory McCabe, Kevin Anchukaitis, Erika Wise, Patrick Erger, Larry Dolan, Marketa McGuire, Subhrendu Gangopadhyay, Katherine Chase, Jeremy Littell, Stephen Gray, Scott St. George et al.
Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Kerry Emanuel
Human influence has intensified extreme precipitation in North America Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young and Xuebin Zhang