Quotes: Climate change links to western wildfires
GENERAL
I don’t know that people have taken to heart that wildfires are worse and worse in part because of climate change and not getting better anytime soon. I’m not sure we’ve calibrated. Californians may need to learn to think about future fires as the Big One, like an earthquake. Vox
— John Abatzoglou, University of Idaho, via Vox
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When it comes to wildfire trends, the last five years in California have really been something else. It's really been hard to watch. it's pretty rare to see such large, dramatic step changes as what we've seen in California in the last five to 10 years. We've broken every record, and we've broken them several times. Largest, most destructive, deadliest—all of these have now been set and, I think, set again.
— Daniel Swain, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, UCLA, via Inside Climate News
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No matter how hard we try, the fires are going to keep getting bigger, and the reason is really clear. Climate is really running the show in terms of what burns.
— Park Williams, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, via Mercury News
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What we’re seeing in California right now is more destructive, larger fires burning at rates that we have historically never seen.
— Jonathan Cox, a Cal Fire spokesman, via CNN
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[Human-caused climate change] is projected to increasingly promote wildfire potential across western U.S. forests in the coming decades, and pose threats to ecosystems, the carbon budget, human health and fire suppression budgets.
— John Abatzoglou, Associate Professor of Geography at the University of Idaho, via Los Angeles Times
HEAT & DRYNESS
Nowadays, it almost doesn’t matter whether we’ve had a wet or dry year in some of these regions. The summers are so warm that everything dries out.
— Daniel Swain, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, UCLA, via The Guardian
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The regional temperatures in the western U.S. have increased by 2 degrees since the 1970s. You’re seeing the effect of climate change.
— Jennifer Balch, Director of Earth Lab at the University of Colorado, Boulder, via Los Angeles Times
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The effect of climate change on forest fires is straightforward. As it has gotten warmer, the fires have gotten bigger.
— Park Williams, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, via Mercury News
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The effect of warming on fire activity is exponential. That means that every degree of warming has a bigger impact than the previous degree of warming.
— Park Williams, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, via Mercury News
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A heat wave today is going to have a much more potent influence on flammability than one 150 years ago when temperatures were 3.5 degrees cooler.
— Park Williams, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, via Washington Post
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As long as there's fuel to burn, your chances of having large fires increases when you increase temperatures. It's that simple.
— Park Williams, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, via Inside Climate News
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[Unusual warmth] leads to drying things out quicker. What that means is the fire has to do less work to ignite the vegetation right next to it. And it can spread faster, and it releases energy more quickly.
— Neil Lareau, Assistant Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Nevada, Reno, via Los Angeles Times
WIND
While there’s not much evidence at this point of a direct link between climate change and changes in offshore wind patterns, there is evidence that climate trends are increasing the likelihood that such winds coincide with dangerously dry vegetation conditions, leading to increased wildfire risk.
— Daniel Swain, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, UCLA, via Mercury News
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We have wind records going back to the 1940s. We don’t see any trend one way or another in the frequency or the intensity of these wind events. This year is probably going to go down as a record year, but we don’t see a trend so far.
— Park Williams, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, via Mercury News
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There are three primary drivers connecting wind speeds to climate change in California: First, the slowing of the jet stream, related to a decrease in the temperature difference between the equator and the pole. This driver is primarily active during the winter season when the jet is the strongest, leading to a decrease in winds during the winter season.
Second, an increase in the temperature difference between ocean and land surfaces driven by the different heat capacities of these systems. This is strongest in the summer, which leads to significant increases in wind speeds throughout the summer and into early fall.
The third driver is hotter temps in the Central Valley and desert regions that make temperature vary within the state. This appears to be responsible for a pressure change in the south central valley, leading to a decrease in Santa Ana wind intensity and frequency.
— Paul Ullrich, UC Davis Climate and Global Change Group, via personal email
ATTRIBUTION
Increases in wildfires and severe weather events in recent years are beginning to match what climate scientists previously predicted. We have now, in California and elsewhere, reached the point where these changes are now detectable.
— Daniel Swain, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, UCLA, via Digital Journal
SEASONALITY
It's not that things are worse because it has warmed a couple degrees because of climate change. It's a cumulative effect in that climate change is altering the landscape. You're getting longer periods of the year when you get these fires. We're literally burning the candle at both ends.
— Daniel Swain, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, UCLA, via NBC News
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The window for wildfires is expanding toward winter.
— Janin Guzman-Morales, Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the UC, San Diego, via New York Times
HEALTH
The health impacts of wildfires are important today and in the future. Climate change is anticipated to increase the frequency, duration, and intensity of wildfires, with fries that occur more often, last longer, and burn hotter.
— Michelle Bell (email), Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, via personal email
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California, Western Washington, Western Oregon, Idaho and Montana are estimated to experience high levels of wildfire smoke in the 2050s.
— Michelle Bell (email), Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, via personal email
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The fine particles from wildfire smoke may be associated with increased risks for respiratory diseases. As wildfire threats are increasing in the Western US, potentially vulnerable populations such as the elderly and children may benefit from wildfire smoke alerts and better awareness of the health impact of wildfire smoke.
— Michelle Bell (email), Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, via personal email
