Oct 28, 2009

Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

S. Jevrejeva, A. Grinsted, J. C. Moore
Geophysical Research Letters
  • Uses a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcing
  • Shows that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings
  • Finds that for the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors
  • Finds that only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1.5 cm are due to a rapid increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gases