Marcus Carson, Garry Peterson, Claudia Strambo, Sarah Cornell, Miriam Huitric, Annika Nilsspm, Juan Carlos Rocha, Marion Davis, Tom Gill, Elaine Beebe, Tyler Kemp-Benedict, Richard Clay, Claudia Strambo, and Hugu Ahlenius

Arctic Council

Published date November 25, 2016

Arctic Resilience Report 2016

If multiple regime shifts reinforce each other, the results could be potentially catastrophic. The variety of effects that we could see means that Arctic people and policies must prepare for surprise. We also expect that some of those changes will destabilise the regional and global climate, with potentially major impacts.

Johan Rockström, from the Stockholm Resilience Centre, co-chair of the project

  • Identifies 19 Arctic tipping points (which it calls regime shifts) that can and have occurred in the region’s ecosystems, including: vegetation growth on tundra, replacing snow and ice and helping to absorb more of the sun’s heat; higher methane releases; the disruption of the Asian monsoon by changing Arctic snow distribution warming the ocean; and collapses of some Arctic fisheries, with global ocean ecosystem consequences
  • Finds that not only are regime shifts occurring, but there is a real risk that one regime shift could trigger others, or simultaneous regime shifts could have unexpected effects