- States that increases in key measures of Atlantic hurricane activity over recent decades are believed to reflect, in large part, contemporaneous increases in tropical Atlantic warmth
- States that some studies have attributed these increases to a natural climate cycle termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), while other studies suggest that climate change may instead be playing the dominant role
- Uses a formal statistical analysis to separate the estimated influences of anthropogenic climate change from possible natural cyclical influences
- Presents results indicating that anthropogenic factors are likely responsible for long‐term trends in tropical Atlantic warmth and tropical cyclone activity
- Indicates that late twentieth century tropospheric aerosol cooling has offset a substantial fraction of anthropogenic warming in the region and has thus likely suppressed even greater potential increases in tropical cyclone activity
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