Science Source
Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability
- States that past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities
- Argues the challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component
- Argues that because global warming is “unequivocal” and ‘very likely’ caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case
- Argues the task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is . . . the benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched
- Argues the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called ‘Type II errors’ whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis
- Concludes that global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities
