Science Source
Attribution of observed historical near‒surface temperature variations to anthropogenic and natural causes using CMIP5 simulations
- Investigates the causes of changes in near‒surface temperatures from 1860 to 2010 using HadCRUT4 observational data and the CMIP5 ensemble of coupled models
- Finds that human‒induced greenhouse gases dominate observed global warming since the mid‒20th century
- Finds that individual models give a wide range of possible counteracting cooling from the direct and indirect effects of aerosols and other non‒greenhouse gas anthropogenic forcings
- Estimates, using the multi-model mean, a range of possible contributions to the observed warming of approximately 0.6 K from greenhouse gases of between 0.6 and 1.2 K, balanced by a counteracting cooling from other anthropogenic forcings of between 0 and −0.5 K
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