Apr 25, 2013

Attribution of observed sea level pressure trends to greenhouse gas, aerosol, and ozone changes

Nathan P. Gillett, John C. Fyfe, David E. Parker
Geophysical Research Letters
  • Finds that greenhouse gas, aerosol, and ozone changes have each made distinct significant contributions to observed SLP trends over the past 60 years, over low latitudes as well as high latitudes
  • This study is the first time that greenhouse gas, ozone, and aerosol influences have been separately detected
  • Finds that the SLP responses to greenhouse gases, aerosols, and ozone have distinct zonal, meridional, and seasonal structures, which aid the separation of their influences in a detection and attribution analysis
  • Uses multiple models and observations and simulations to 2011 to enhance the signal‐to‐noise ratio is also enhanced in our analysis by our use of multiple models
  • States that these forced SLP trends have almost certainly influenced wind patterns, temperatures, and precipitation around the globe as well as the ocean circulation and carbon cycle in the Southern Ocean
  • Concludes that through the 21st century, as greenhouse gas concentrations increase, aerosol precursor emissions decline and stratospheric ozone recovers, we can expect an evolving pattern of ongoing forced SLP changes and associated impacts across the globe, which is distinct from the historical trend