Mar 11, 2003

Causes of atmospheric temperature change 1960–2000: A combined attribution analysis

Gareth S. Jones, Simon F. B. Tett, Peter A. Stott
Geophysical Research Letters
  • Investigates the causes of temperature change over the last four decades, both near the surface and in the free atmosphere
  • Uses an 'optimal detection' methodology to examine zonal mean temperatures near the surface and on nine diagnosed pressure levels throughout the atmosphere over the last four decades of the 20th Century
  • This produces a space‐time‐multivariable detection analysis which for the first time includes both solar and volcanic forcings in addition to anthropogenic forcings
  • The results strengthen the case for an anthropogenic influence on climate
  • Attributes (unlike in other studies) observed decadal‐mean temperature changes both to anthropogenic emissions, and changes in stratospheric volcanic aerosols
  • Also detects the temperature response to change in solar irradiance but with a lower confidence than the other forcings