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Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire

Models large wildfire occurrence and burned area using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios
Analyzes the range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques CM3, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 and National Center for Atmospheric Research PCM1); three scenarios for future population growth and development footprint; and two thresholds for defining the wildland-urban interface relative to housing density
Assesses results for three 30-year time periods centered on 2020, 2050, and 2085, relative to a 30-year reference period centered on 1975
Finds that increases in wildfire burned area are anticipated for most scenarios, although the range of outcomes is large and increases with time
Finds the increase in wildfire burned area associated with the higher emissions pathway (SRES A2) is substantial, with increases statewide ranging from 36% to 74% by 2085, and increases exceeding 100% in much of the forested areas of Northern California in every SRES A2 scenario by 2085

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