Science Source
M. Dettinger
Journal of the American Water Resources Association
Published date June 1, 2010
Journal of the American Water Resources Association
Published date June 1, 2010
Climate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California - a multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes
- States that recent studies have documented the important role that ‘‘atmospheric rivers’’ (ARs) of concentrated near-surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington
- Evaluates the occurrence of atmospheric river storms in historical observations and in a 7-model ensemble of historical-climate and projected future climate simulations
- Finds that under an A2 greenhouse-gas emissions scenario (with emissions accelerating throughout the 21st Century), average AR statistics do not change much in most climate models; however, extremes change notably
- Finds that years with many AR episodes increase, ARs with higher-than-historical water-vapor transport rates increase, and AR storm-temperatures increase
- Finds that the peak season within which most ARs occur is commonly projected to lengthen, extending the flood-hazard season
- States that all of these tendencies could increase opportunities for both more frequent and more severe floods in California under projected climate changes
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