Science Source
Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought
- States there is evidence that the 2007−2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria
- States the drought was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers
- States that century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone
- Concludes that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict
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