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Comparison of methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences
- States that the year 2014 broke the record for the warmest yearly average temperature in Europe
- States that attributing how much this was due to anthropogenic climate change and how much it was due to natural variability is challenging
- Compares four event attribution methods
- Looks at the risk ratio (RR) associated with anthropogenic climate change for this event, over the whole European region, as well as its spatial distribution
- Finds that each method shows a very strong anthropogenic influence on the event over Europe, though the magnitude of the RR strongly depends on the definition of the event and the method used
- Finds that across Europe, attribution over larger regions tended to give greater RR values
- Concludes that this highlights a major source of sensitivity in attribution statements and the need to define the event to analyze on a case-by-case basis
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