Science Source

Declining summer snowfall in the Arctic: causes, impacts and feedbacks

Explores recent changes in the Arctic hydrological cycle using in situ observations and an improved atmospheric reanalysis data set, ERA-Interim
Documents a pronounced decline in summer snowfall over the Arctic Ocean and Canadian Archipelago
Diagnoses the snowfall decline as being almost entirely caused by changes in precipitation form (snow turning to rain) with very little influence of decreases in total precipitation
States the proportion of precipitation falling as snow has decreased as a result of lower-atmospheric warming
Finds that, statistically, over 99% of the summer snowfall decline is linked to Arctic warming over the past two decades
Derives an estimate for the amount of snow-covered ice based on the reanalysis snowfall data over the ice-covered Arctic Ocean
Estimates that the area of snow-covered ice, and the proportion of sea ice covered by snow, have decreased significantly
Performs a series of sensitivity experiments in which inter-annual changes in snow-covered ice are either unaccounted for, or are parameterized
In the parameterized case, the loss of snow-on-ice results in a substantial decrease in the surface albedo over the Arctic Ocean, that is of comparable magnitude to the decrease in albedo due to the decline in sea ice cover
Finds, accordingly, that the solar input to the Arctic Ocean is increased, causing additional surface ice melt
Concludes that the decline in summer snowfall has likely contributed to the thinning of sea ice over recent decades
The results presented provide support for the existence of a positive feedback in association with warming-induced reductions in summer snowfall