Science Source

Defining a new normal for extremes in a warming world

Defines and applies the term ‘new normal’ to 2015 record-breaking temperatures
States that a new normal can be useful for understanding and communicating extremes in a changing climate when precisely defined
Provides a formal definition of a new climate normal relative to present based around record-breaking contemporary events and explores the timing of when such extremes become statistically normal in the future model simulations
Determines that the 2015 global annual average temperatures will be the new normal by 2040 in all emissions scenarios
Finds that at the regional level, a new normal can be delayed through aggressive greenhouse gas emissions reductions