Science Source

Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity

States that quantifying the relationships between total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy and climate is critical to understanding whether growth will continue
Builds a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate
Shows that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain about 70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981–2010
Finds that to date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology
Also finds, however, that projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios