Mar 6, 2017
Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity
by
,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- States that quantifying the relationships between total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy and climate is critical to understanding whether growth will continue
- Builds a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate
- Shows that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain about 70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981–2010
- Finds that to date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology
- Also finds, however, that projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios