Science Source

Serreze, M. C., Barrett, A. P., Stroeve, J. C., Kindig, D. N., Holland, M. M.

The Cryosphere

Published date February 4, 2009

The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification

States that rises in surface and lower troposphere air temperatures through the 21st century are projected to be especially pronounced over the Arctic Ocean during the cold season
States that this Arctic amplification is largely driven by loss of the sea ice cover, allowing for strong heat transfers from the ocean to the atmosphere
Finds -- consistent with observed reductions in sea ice extent -- that fields from both the NCEP/NCAR and JRA-25 reanalyses point to emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification in the last decade