Science Source

Future Arctic sea ice loss reduces severity of cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes

States previous studies on the effects of Arctic sea ice loss on cold air outbreaks (CAOs) in midlatitudes have defined CAOs relative to the present-day climate, but changes in CAOs, defined in such a way, may reflect changes in mean climate and not in weather variability, and society is more sensitive to the latter
This study revisits the above topic but applies changing temperature thresholds relating to climate conditions of the time
States CAOs do not change in frequency or duration in response to projected sea ice loss
States CAOs do, however, become less severe, mainly due to advection of warmed polar air, since the dynamics associated with the occurrence of CAOs are largely not affected
Finds CAOs weaken even in midlatitude regions where the winter mean temperature decreases in response to Arctic sea ice loss
States the results are robustly simulated by two atmospheric models prescribed with differing future sea ice states and in transient runs where external forcings are included