Science Source

Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs

Investigates potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO)
Performs 15 ensemble experiments under the International Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario
Most of the ensemble future (2075–2099) experiments do not project significant future changes in the basin-scale TC genesis number; however, they commonly show a substantial increase (by 46 %) in TC frequency over the Arabian Sea and a decrease (by 31 %) in the Bay of Bengal
Projected future changes in TC genesis frequency show a marked seasonal variation in the North Indian Ocean: a significant and robust reduction during the pre-monsoon season, an increase during the peak-monsoon season, and a westward shift during the post-monsoon season
Analyses several large-scale thermodynamic and dynamical parameters to elucidate the physical mechanism responsible for the future changes in TC activity
This analysis reveals a seasonal dependence of the relative contribution of these parameters to the projected future changes in TC genesis frequency