May 9, 2019

Global and Regional Increase of Precipitation Extremes under Global Warming

Simon Michael Papalexiou, Alberto Montanari
Water Resources Research
  • Performs a global analysis of 8730 daily precipitation records focusing on the 1964‐2013 period when the global warming accelerates
  • Introduces a novel analysis of the N largest extremes in records having N complete years within the study period 
  • Forms time series of their annual frequency and mean annual magnitude based on these extremes, which represent more accurately heavy precipitation than annual maxima 
  • Analysis reveals: (1) global and zonal increasing trends in the frequency of extremes that are highly unlikely under the assumption of stationarity, and (2) magnitude changes that are not as evident
  • Frequency changes reveal a coherent spatial pattern with increasing trends being detected in large parts of Eurasia, North Australia, and the Midwestern United States
  • Finds 7% more extreme events than the expected number over the last decade of the studied period globally